This paper provides a warning about the dangers of what we will call ‘overshoot’. To fully appreciate the risk of overshoot we have first to explore a key principle of the universe:
Progress is made by death and rebirth
Life is in constant flux. For new forms to emerge, previous forms have to decay. Each new form creates a wave such as shown in Figure 1. (Insert link to Figure 1)
The pattern is simple. There is a period of growth, then a peak followed by a period of decline. It is, for example, what happens to bacteria when they are placed on a nutrient agar plate in the lab. The bacteria grow exponentially by division until the food supply is exhausted and then the whole colony collapses. It is also the pattern observed for most species as they slowly ascend in numbers, peak and then decline into extinction. The wave with growth, a peak and then decline, also describes the performance over a lifetime of muscle, nerves, nephrons and many other body parts. These examples from nature could be multiplied endlessly because nature is defined by growth, peak and decline.
The populariser of this graph is Charles Handy who, when he uses this diagram, is usually working with a business. His point is that businesses are also characterised by growth, peak and decline. He asks his clients where they judge their business to be on the wave. Are they still growing (point A), have they reached their peak (midway between A and B) or are they into decline (point B)?
Handy makes two key arguments. First, the only way to escape the cycle of growth and decline is to create a new growth wave and, second, the best place to start the new growth curve – the new wave – is point A where the resources of continuing growth from the first wave can be used to enable the launch of the new wave. But this takes leadership and the courage to launch out on a new venture while things seem to be going fine. Point B is the most common point of departure. But by this time resources are diminishing and people have lost confidence in their leaders.
Our focus is not on nature or business but on society. For us, that means the nation of Scotland within a wider context that extends through the UK to Europe and the globe. However, the two questions that need to be asked are the same the world over. The first question is ‘where are we on the first wave – nearer to point A or B?’ The second question is ‘what is the nature of the new wave? ’
When we raised the first question with a series of colleagues, they reflected on the fact that the upswing of this growth curve has been a 300-year-long trend that has been built on the fruits of the Enlightenment. This has brought us many benefits including science, technology, improved health, universal education, the National Health Service, democracy and human rights. The consensus was that we in Scotland are nearer to point A or at the very least still on the upward trend of the wave. Our respondents were uncertain as to how close we currently stand to the crest: to the point at which collapse begins.
The evidence cited that we are still on the upswing of the national growth curve came from the continuing development of several dimensions of our society; the economy (conventional GDP continues to grow); infrastructure (expansion of travel, education, health services, etc.); culture (more books, films, plays, etc. than ever before); and tolerance (continuing legislation to establish greater equality in terms of gender, disability, sexual orientation, etc.).
Yet, it was also agreed that our society (in common with the whole industrialised world) is beginning to show diminishing returns and even adverse effects from the very forces that initially brought us these benefits. Examples of these included: a rise in isolation and loneliness; loss of purpose and meaning; rising consumerism; troubling trends in addictive behaviour; concerns over work–life balance; increasing inequality; loss of well-being and a rise in the diagnosis of anxiety and depression; an epidemic of obesity … and much more. These observations were made by a significant minority who judged Scotland to be nearer to point B: that is, already in decline and heading for collapse (more of that perspective will come later).
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