Throughout history, the health of populations has been altered more by economic and social change operating over decades, than by short-term policy interventions. Yet the discourse of journals such as the Lancet is dominated by technical innovations, refinement of treatment regimes and short-term policy debates. In contrast, inevitable changes in global energy availability and supply have the potential to cause changes in health that will eclipse the relevance of most other current debates.
A long-recognised phenomenon, known as peak oil or ‘Hubbert’s blip’, is set to bring the age of cheap oil to an end in the near future. This will occur not when oil runs out, but after only half of the oil reserves have been used – the production peak. This is likely to have a large negative and sustained impact on Western economies in the future, as multiple facets of these societies are built upon the cheap availability of oil. Through the impact on economic circumstances, the dwindling availability of energy resources is likely to be the biggest challenge to public health in the foreseeable future.
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